Forget Polls, Romney Backers Say, 'He'll Win'

Many Republicans dismiss the large lead some polls say the president has going into the first debate.

Add polling data to the growing list of things Republicans and Democrats don’t see eye to eye on.

With Barack Obama, by the reckoning of most polls, surging ahead of challenger Mitt Romney in recent weeks, many prominent Republicans have begun questioning the methodology, and the motives, of the pollsters. The skepticism has trickled down to the local level.

At Romney’s Sept. 28 rally at Valley Forge Military Academy—a state where he faces, according to election forecaster Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, an 8.6 point deficit and has just a three percent chance of winning—each of the attendees Patch spoke with expressed the view that recent polling data isn't an accurate reflection of the state of the race.

Poll Dance

Sharon Kanze is among the dubious. The problem, to her mind, is this: it’s a broadly accepted political truism that voters are more likely to support candidates who they perceive as doing well. So left-leaning pollsters, aided by members of the media with sympathetic views, have gamed the system to give the president a reelection nudge.

“That’s why I think they’re being manipulated in that direction,” the Romney supporter explained from her spot in line outside the academy. “The press is just so pro-Obama.”

Polly Beckham, a Romney volunteer out of Ambler, doesn’t have quite as fully-formed views as Kanze’s about the hows and whys of the polling problem, but she shares her sense that there’s a growing disconnect between how the race is being reported and the actual facts on the ground.

“I work in the Conshohocken Ryan/Romney office, and I talk to people. I’ve had people on the line who have said, for instance, a Democratic leader in Aliquippa, said ‘I’m so sick of this environment, I’m voting Republican.’”

She added, “There’s a lot going on below the surface. I think we’re about even in Pennsylvania.”

Brian Peppel, the head of the Phoenixville Republican Committee and a key player in Romney’s Chester County campaign, said, polls aside, there are other important indicators that auger well for his candidate.

Because TV ads are prohibitively expensive in Pennsylvania, both campaigns have focused on the “ground game”—old-fashioned, get out the vote efforts—and in that area the Romney team, Peppel says, is well ahead of the competition.

“The voter contacts we’ve made in Chester County have surpassed the last two elections already. And we’re leading the nation in voter contacts and get out the vote efforts,” he said.

“Pennsylvania is in play, despite what people are saying.”

Bad Intentions or Just Bad Technique?

Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6), who spoke at the rally, told Patch he thinks the polls are off, but attributed their shortcomings more to bad methodology than ideology.

“[Pollsters] are using the wrong turnout model in their polling. If you’re using the 2008 turnout models, you’re using the wrong models, because Republicans have more voter intensity right now than Democrats. That’s the opposite of what it was four years ago,” said the congressman who is, by measure of the very polls he criticized, a heavy favorite to return to Washington for his sixth term.

Gerlach also threw cold water on the notion that the impression of a lead in a campaign necessarily becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

“I’ve been in this before, it cuts both ways,” he said. “It might depress your turnout.”

Edward Kochman, a Romney supporter who has residences in King of Prussia and Florida—“Two swing states,” he noted—is similarly optimistic.

“I’m very glad that the pollsters are saying Obama has a lead,” he laughed. “I hope the Democrats will stay home hoping he doesn’t need their help again.”

Japan October 02, 2012 at 12:35 AM
2008: Forget Polls, McCain Backers Say, 'He'll Win'
Japan October 02, 2012 at 12:38 AM
at age 75 arent you slotted for Alzheimer status soon?
Yikes! October 02, 2012 at 12:51 AM
One thing is clear throughout this happy little exchange - literally ALL of the nasty, cheap-shot comments on here are from the Romney supporters. The others, whether for Obama or not, have a whole lot more CLASS and seem to stick to the issues like real, thinking humans. What does that say about Romney and his followers?? VOTE good people - and don't let these clowns win this election and destroy our USA.
Yikes! October 02, 2012 at 01:01 AM
Right Agnes, entertainers in a circus Sideshow.
Tom Bartman October 02, 2012 at 01:37 AM
Mary - email me. You gave me a great idea.
Lorbee October 02, 2012 at 01:41 AM
Here is a copy/paste from one of your liberal classy obama supporters, Yikes. You are hypocritical in saying that Romney supporters resort to cheap shot comments and finish YOURS by saying "these clowns." Not only a cheap shot, but not very intelligent to do that. Here is that classy comment from yesterday, insulting and arrogant, suggesting that I may not know what a "surname" is: Jane Frankland 6:33 pm on Sunday, September 30, 2012 Is "Lorbee" a surname? Do you know what a surname is? Can you identify yourself? Or, are you just as cowardly as JF?
Lorbee October 02, 2012 at 01:49 AM
Mary only stated the truth. As they say, "the truth hurts" and you will find the cream will rise to the top in November, and we will be saying "President Romney." Thank you, Lord, I know YOU will make it happen.
Yikes! October 02, 2012 at 01:53 AM
Thanks Lorbee - if that comment you cited above is the worst you could find in this ocean of rudeness, then my point is proven. That is nothing compared to you referring to OUR US PRESIDENT as "bammy". Amazing.
Mohandus Frieri October 02, 2012 at 01:55 AM
Romney and his supporters need credibility by actually proposing ideas that make sense. They are so timid to do so because they are idealogues and don't feel they need to justify their trickle down economics. For them it is a given that when you eliminate taxes on the wealthy and levy onerous taxes on workers, they benefit from the jobs the wealth will create. Well recent history tells us this doesn't work. Workers' wages have been flat since 1980 when Reagan took office. The only folks who made money is the wealthy. Under Clinton, we taxed the wealty, we paid down the deficit, nearly eliminated it and were on a clear track to be a debt free country. Then Bush took office. He gave tax breaks to the wealthy, stopped enforcing financial regulations, started two wars, and started a Medicare prescription benefit, funding nothing and driving up the deficit to the point the world was economic collpase by the end of 2008; Romney wants too repeat this and the mindless seem to be saying, Yes, let's do it again and then blame it on Obama. I suggest those people like Senate Minority Leader Kentucky Slim, and House leader Crybaby Boner are cowards and weaklings. They stated their mission as defeating Obama which contradicts their constitutional responsibility. So if you can live with yourselves, you deserve to be defeated.
Carmen Cee October 02, 2012 at 02:33 AM
Not much of a political person.As a single mother,i am poor.As much as money means to me,my kids mean so much more.Like I said not so political,all my time is spent with my children.As I watch TV with my children,I get so upset.Videos,half naked women,girls kissing girls,people being glorified for fighting and disgusting behavior.I predict they will be allowing pornography in a few years if another liberal president is elected.I remember in the 80's George Bush banned a rap group called The Two Live Crew.My ideal president would be a conservative democrat,someone like Joe lieberman,but thats not going to happen.Still confused who I am voting for,my financial situation would say Obama.My heart who is with The Good Lord,says Mitt Romney.Since God is above everything,I will with Romney.
Eric W October 02, 2012 at 02:45 AM
@Mary: did "the media" during the reagan/carter election include the internet? blogs? facebook? Get with the times!
. October 02, 2012 at 03:06 AM
It's clear as day "Mary" is a DUDE pretending to be a woman online. I have noticed this seems to be a theme for many right wingers. The funniest part is Bartmen is asking for HIS e-mail trying to hook up. LOL!
Yikes! October 02, 2012 at 03:10 AM
Not sure you want to base your vote on God through Mitt Romney, unless you are a Mormon too. Romney is at present, a high priest in the Church of Mormon. Mormons believe that founder Joseph Smith is higher than Jesus Christ. Check it out...the man has taken vows.
Tom Bartman October 02, 2012 at 03:11 AM
LOL! Haha!
Nancy Simmons October 02, 2012 at 03:32 AM
When you ask for ideas on how to improve things I have to laugh. Obama had his turn and didn't solve anything....he had no ideas. When Obama took office he continued the tax breaks, continued with the war (that the Dem.s voted for) where more deaths occurred then the previous 8 yrs, funding solar projects that went belly-up and driving the deficit to record levels, bailed out GM who is now considering bankruptcy...again,divided the country, invited and monetarily backed countries and leaders that wish us harm, bypassed the Constitution, shoved healthcare down our throats,etc., etc., etc Mary is correct... and all this from the golf course. Try other venues for news. The internet is waiting.
Morgan King October 02, 2012 at 05:43 AM
God has voiced no discernible opinion on the people running for office in America, and presuming to know what He might think about them if He did is a pretty big guess, and an awfully slippery slope.
Morgan King October 02, 2012 at 06:12 AM
How can you guys possible argue it's 'true' or a 'fact' that 47% of the American people won't "take personal responsibility and care for their lives" when A) you don't know them personally, and B) that number includes the 28.3% who ARE employed and simply make an amount that's taxed under the amount they have withheld from their paychecks, AND it it includes the 10.3% who are retired or living on Social Security. Did they not take care of their lives? Are people making under an arbitrary dollar amount not taking 'personal responsibility'? Or are we really just talking about the 6.9% who pay no federal taxes at all? full context: "Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax. So our message of low taxes doesn't connect. And he'll be out there talking about tax cuts for the rich. I mean that's what they sell every four years. And so my job is not to worry about those people—I'll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives." figures: http://www.slate.com/blogs/spitzer/2012/09/18/romney_s_47_percent_it_s_only_6_9_percent_and_the_tax_burden_is_proportionally_distributed_.html
Sharpie October 02, 2012 at 10:20 AM
Just because some of us can't discern God's opinion on the people doesn't mean there isn't any, or that none of us can discern it. BTW, God is not exclusively a he. Figure it out. Nobody is guessing nothing that is paying a lot of attention. But, it does require paying attention to what truly matters.
GoIden Cockroach October 02, 2012 at 10:58 AM
I have noticed that Tommy Fartman has also been talking about third graders. Shame on you Fartman. Love the comment that Mary is KKK. That sums up the right-wing, racist & pervs.
GoIden Cockroach October 02, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Wha wha what???? Quit sniffing your Sharpie, you make zero sense.
WILFREDO G. SALCEDO, Sr. October 02, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Anyone with half a brain could see that voter photo ID law invoked by the Romney camp (only States with Republican legislature) is intended to suppress the potential Obama voters...Other tactics are to shred Democrats' registration forms in Florida, make sure student voters in Ohio write down their dorm room number, attempted cancellation of early voting also in Ohio...God help us...Hopefully, today the PA High Court sees the light and throws this statute out.
Morgan King October 02, 2012 at 04:29 PM
Sharpie - I was going to go with 'It' but that seemed even less appropriate. Regardless, if you think that you could possibly know what an eternal omniscient cosmic being feels about something, even if you're trying to decipher it from a text thousands of years and translations old, you are deluding yourself.
Yikes! October 02, 2012 at 05:17 PM
AMEN Morgan King. You are right on!!!
Tom Sunnergren (Editor) October 02, 2012 at 05:49 PM
Carl W October 02, 2012 at 06:35 PM
Well done! However, people & Parties get pensive, and want to know, at least in general, what " the 4-1-1" is, also Parties to plan/alter strategies. Nonetheless, like your comment !!
Marc Lombardi October 02, 2012 at 06:46 PM
The government is against them. The unions are against them. The liberal media is against them. The pollsters are against them. Is there anyone that the the right-wing conspiracy lovers DON'T think is against them?
Justsaying October 03, 2012 at 02:09 AM
Apparently Mitt Romney is now less popular than… George W. Bush. That’s according to a new Bloomberg News poll, which finds that former President Bush has 46 percent favorable ratings and 49 percent unfavorable ratings among adults. By contrast, the current GOP presidential candidate Romney has a favorability rating of 43 percent and unfavorable ratings at 50 percent. President Barack Obama came in with higher favorability than both Republicans, racking up 52 favorable ratings and 44 percent unfavorables. Romney did, however, beat out Vice President Joe Biden‘s 42 percent net favorable ratings. The poll’s most favorable leader found was former President Bill Clinton, who polled at 64 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable. Coming in second was First Lady Michelle Obama, with 63 favorable and 29 unfavorable.
Colter95 November 03, 2012 at 04:11 PM
Yes, Marc. A majority of the PA voters, who vote on facts, not ideology. I saw Obama yesterday claiming the new job numbers are proof that his policies are working and that we are in an economic recovery. Fact is, that is not the truth, or even close to the truth. First, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% and the year-to-date monthly average of 157,000 payroll jobs is barely enough to keep up with population growth -- much less make up for the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession. Second, the so-called real unemployment rate (U6) remains elevated at 14.6%, albeit down from 14.7% the prior month. Similarly, the labor participation rate is at 63.8%, up from its multi-decade low but still incredibly weak. Third, average hourly earnings fell a penny in October and average hours worked fell to 34.4 from 34.5 in September. Stagnant wages means "we're not generating income," Reinhart says. "That's a problem in terms of the durability of an economic expansion, which is usually fueled by consumption. To get consumption you've got to generate income." Also, just look at your checkbook. We are paying a lot more for everything now than we did in 2008. The price of gas has doubled. At the same time, wages have gone down, and that's if you're lucky to have a job. In 2008, 25 banks went out of business. In 2012, 48 banks have gone out of business. Almost double the amount. Does that sound like recovery to you? Don't believe the Obama lies!! Romney/Ryan 2012
Colter95 November 03, 2012 at 04:12 PM
Please don't let Obama sweep Benghazi under the rug... Lets not forget those four who were left to be slaughtered in Benghazi... Every voter needs to read this excellent article... Very well worth your time... http://spectator.org/archives/2012/11/01/benghazi-obamas-core-deceit/ These are pretty good as well: http://www.gazette.com/opinion/romney-146793-obama-benghazi.html http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/benghazigate-obamas-many-lies-about-libya/ http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/50657 http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/25/CBS-Busts-Obama--and-Itself-Hidden-60-Minutes-Clip-Proves-White-House-Lied-About-Benghazi Romney/Ryan 2012
Colter95 November 05, 2012 at 11:52 PM
Obama is wrong on the economy, wrong on Benghazi, and wrong on the auto bailout. The time for real change is NOW!! Cut, paste, read, and forward!! http://www.policymic.com/articles/14285/obama-lies-obama-auto-bailout-did-not-rescue-detroit http://www.factcheck.org/2012/06/obamas-outsourcer-overreach/ http://twitchy.com/2012/10/23/obama-lies-about-romneys-position-on-auto-bailouts-conservatives-hit-back/ http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jack-coleman/2012/10/26/letterman-slams-obama-auto-bailout-lie-followed-maddow-parroting-same- Romney/Ryan 2012


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